03.12.07

Essay: Critique of Max Weber’s Religion of China

Posted in 人文 at 3:23 am by 若水

Critique of Max Weber’s Religion of Chian

Upon completion of the Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Max Weber initiated a project to answer this question: why has modern capitalism only emerged in the western world? Or, more specifically, what qualities of the protestant ethic, i.e. puritan ethic, marked its difference with those of other major traditions to solely allow a western emergence of the spirit of capitalism? This project explains the structure and content of his Religion of China; examining Confucianism and Taoism from the particular cultural-historical background of China, Weber concludes that divergent historical development results primarily from ethical, rather than political-economic differences. This difference does not emerge from either religion’s lack of rationalism, which, as Weber states, “To judge the level of rationalization a religion represents we may use two primary yardsticks which are in many ways interrelated. One is the degree to which the religion has divested itself of magic; the other is the degree to which it has systematically unified the relation between God and the world and therewith its own ethical relationships to the world”.[1] Both of these qualities, as presented in the Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, manifest in the Protestant religion. Confucianism on the other hand achieves the same level of rationalism by these two standards; it eschews magic as Confucius seldom speaks about “prodigies, magic powers, disorder and spirits”, and it insists “that Heaven is the ultimate source of human virtues, that the Mandate of Heaven can be known through one’s conscious search in one’s nature and/or in the natural and human world, and that fulfillment of Heaven’s Mandate is nothing other than undertaking self-cultivation and extending one’s virtues to others and to the world”.[2] Yet the two types of developed rationalism mutually exclude one another, resulting in two different historical developments.[3] Confucianism forms a rational adjustment rather than Protestantism’s rational mastery of the world.[4] That is to say, through adjustment Confucianism becomes a force of traditionalism that impedes the rationalistic development of capitalism.[5] This paper shall closely analyze Weberian perception of Confucianism and Protestantism’s divergences in rationalization in terms of their perception of salvation, which creates a tension between the supra-mundane and the mundane, asceticism, and, taking into consideration their respective political-historical development, life-aspirations. Then, it shall critique the Weberian understanding of Chinese Confucianism, noting his misconceptions of elements supposedly lacking in the said religion, to conclude that although Weber successfully observes Confucianism’s lack of development for capitalist mentality, he fails to perceive the reason for such absence.

The concept of salvation, present in Protestantism and absent in Weberian conception of Confucianism, shall be the first point of comparison. The concept of salvation is pivotal to the Protestant religion; it places a goal distant and separate from life that essentially checks one’s behavior in life; a subject faces two choices, viz. the morally upright life or eternal condemnation. This choice results from a “contrast between ‘god’ or ‘nature’ and ‘statutory law’ or ‘convention’”[6]. That is to say, a dichotomy of the supra-mundane and the mundane is established, with the vision of the former closely monitoring the ethics of the latter. It is through this separation, along with the rationalization of a worldly asceticism that the protestant ethic evolves into the spirit of capitalism. However, as Weber notes, the Christian concept of salvation is absent in the Confucian tradition—“a conflict in the Christian manner between the interest in the salvation of one’s soul and the demands of the natural social order was inconceivable”.[7] Instead of focusing one’s attention to a distant, supra-mundane reality, the Confucian is “saved” from “barbaric lack of education”.[8] The Confucian ethics considers this worldly life of paramount importance and seeks improvement with education solely within the scope of a conceivable, natural life. Weber comprehends it as a “system of radical worldly optimism [that] succeeded in removing the basic pessimistic tension between the world and the supra-mundane destination of the individual”.[9] Because it lacks “any tension between nature and deity, between ethical demand and human shortcoming, consciousness of sin and need for salvation, conduct on earth and comprehension in the beyond, religious duty and sociopolitical reality”, Confucianism cannot support “conduct through inner forces freed of tradition and convention”.[10] Whereas the existence of such tension creates man’s forceful adjustment of the world, taken as material, to his internal ideas, the lack thereof, as manifested in the case of Confucianism, harmonizes to adjust “to the outside, to the conditions of the ‘world’”, producing a “style of life… characterized by essentially negative traits”.[11] Indeed, Weber sees Confucian rationalism a process that deters man from forming a “unified personality” which is “a whole placed methodically under a transcendental goal”.[12] Hence, the Weberian perception of Confucianism is one that lacks any touch of divinity; without transcendence, manifested in the tension between the supra-mundane and the mundane, without salvation, it imprisons souls to a world of traditions and conventions. This world, in addition, is one of inter-human relations, bound by propriety, without duties to a supra-human divinity, or even a sense of abstract community. A person is to sustain his five relationships with his lord, his father, his brothers, his wife, and his friends in harmony, fulfilling a personist principle, “undoubtedly as great a barrier to impersonal rationalization as it was generally to impersonal matter of factness”.[13] Hence, lacking the concept of salvation serves as the first great obstacle for Confucian ethic to advance to a spirit of capitalism. However, missing also in the Confucian tradition is the notion of asceticism, whose worldly form plays a catalyst in the transformation of the Protestant ethic into the spirit of capitalism.

Asceticism, evident in the Protestant ethics, produces a “relentlessly and religiously systematized utilitarianism… to live “in” the world and yet not be ‘of’ it”, which creates “superior rational aptitude and therewith the spirit of the vocational man, which… was denied to Confucianism”.[14] On the contrary, the Confucian way of life, though rational, is “determined, unlike Puritanism, from without rather than from within”, resulting in “mere sobriety and thriftiness combined with acquisitiveness and regard for wealth… far from representing and far from releasing the ‘capitalist spirit,’ in the sense that this is found in the vocational man of the modern economy”.[15] According to Weber, “asceticism and contemplation, mortification and escape from the world were not only unknown in Confucianism but were despised as parasitism”.[16] As a result, the Confucian never engages in the Puritan—Protestant par excellence—form of “rationalism”, of which “the typical Puritan earned plenty, spent little, and reinvested his income as capital in rational capitalist enterprise out of an asceticist compulsion to save”.[17] Instead, “the typical Confucian used his own and his family’s savings in order to acquire a literary education and to have himself trained for the examinations… thus he gained the basis for a cultured status position”.[18] Therefore, the Confucian ethic sans ascetic element produces a kind of contradiction that drives one into fame rather than capitalist enterprises; he lacks the transcendental, ascetic goal of the Puritan, “the true Christian, the other-worldly and inner-worldly asceticist, [who] wishes to be nothing more than a tool of his God”.[19] While the Confucian sought worldly pursuits, no great economic accumulation results; while the Puritan eschews the very same pursuit, the spirit of capitalism begets. The result from the lack of salvation and asceticism in Confucian doctrines embedded in the particular historical development of an early patrimonial imperial bureaucracy creates a society with life-aspiration focused on status, manifests in a privileged literati class with prestige in officialdom as its highest aspirations in life.

The patrimonial system trains a “superior man” mastered in the art of propriety who both opposes commercial activities and seeks personal gains in office, and who opposes useful training of a socially useful man and seeks self-cultivation through learning. In short, he is expected to become a moral man, not a Puritan individual who seeks his own salvation and engages in worldly asceticism from his sense of duty, of calling from God; however, his very focus on worldly morality produces a fortune-hunter without real spiritual guidance. On one hand, the Confucian opposes commercial activities, which Confucius denounces to be those of profit and unsuitable for a superior man. He further separates himself from the Protestant ideal of one who becomes a tool; instead, “the fundamental assertion, ‘a cultured man is not a tool’ meant that he was an end in himself and not just a means for a specified useful purpose”.[20] On the other hand, the only way for a Confucian to prove himself a “cultured man” or “superior man” is through the gaining of official position through various examination systems; he has no God to reaffirm his inner value—only societal recognition would serve the purpose. In addition, because the Confucian generates “an absolutely agnostic and essentially negative mood opposed to all hopes for a beyond”, he places his “’messianic’ hope for a this-worldly Savior-Emperor” and employs himself to be an official, an aide, to that glorified individual.[21] As Weber observes, the Confucian goes as far as “deifying ‘wealth’” and engages in unlawful activities of acquiring wealth in the short terms of his office, while at the same time show condescendence to merchants and profiteering.[22] The Confucian, because of his worldly aspirations in life, engages in adjustment to vanity fair, acknowledging wealth while surrendering to enjoyment. The resulting ethic from this aspiration, along with the previously stated absence of salvation and asceticism, is a rationalism of adjustment that opposes the mentality of capitalism. [23] Further, Confucianism does not lead to any formulations of newer ethics as it necessarily supports and reinforces its current, patrimonial system, as its “reason” is a “rationalism of order” essentially “pacifist in nature”.[24] Hence, in drawing these various differences Confucian ethic hold from protestant ethic, Weber postulates a possible explanation to a historical fact: while modern spirit of capitalism emerged in the west through rationalization of the protestant ethic, its impossibility of development in China can be partially a result of a stagnant Confucian ethics.

This paper, then, has compared Weber’s notion of Confucianism with Protestantism as an attempt to explain China’s lack of capitalist mentality in his Religion of China. Although Weber quite accurately describes the economic-historical reality of China’s lack of capitalist, and also its lack of capitalist mentality (“spirit of capitalism”), and perhaps too these realities are partially in fact caused by an impeding force of Confucianism, his understanding of Confucianism in many areas are Eurocentric and erroneous. Confucianism, contrary to Weberian understanding, not only has an ascetic element and a spiritually inspired life-aspiration, but also an acknowledgement of supra-mundane reality, that is, a salvation of a kind. However, true to its western lineage, while the Weberian description of a capitalist-mentality-generating ethic requires a dichotomy, a contradiction, or a “tension” between supra-mundane and the mundane world, the Confucian model by its own light disregards these tensions as unnatural and seeks to harmonize opposing forces. Weber, indeed, is very correct in stating that “Confucian rationalism meant rational adjustment to the world; Puritan rationalism meant rational mastery of the world”.[25] But this difference cannot be used as a value-judgmental basis to apologize for Confucianism’s lack of development. Indeed, Confucianism never developed a spirit of capitalism because such a notion takes no place in Confucian spirituality; it is simply unnecessary. The Religion of China ultimately fails to comprehend Confucian ethics and its negligence of capitalistic development because its approach, similar to its subject of Protestantism, is itself a product of western rationalism that requires and focuses on various “tensions”, or individual parts that serve utilitarian purposes, rather than that of a holistic philosophy.

To properly understand Confucianism, especially its heavy emphasis on the world here and now, one has to first attempt an understanding of its basic weltanschauung. A key concept, anthropocosmic unity, ought to be explained prior to the discussion of Confucian asceticism, life-aspiration, and ultimately, harmony between the supra-mundane and the mundane world. Anthropocosmic unity, or “unity between heaven and man” (tianrenheyi), “has been generally regarded a feature uniquely characteristic of Chinese religious and philosophical imagination”.[26] In Confucian belief there always exists a concept of heaven (tian) that, contrary to Weber’s notion that it completely lacks metaphysics, are at least omniscient and omnipresent, though not necessarily omnipotent.[27] Chinese emperors called themselves “sons of heavens” as direct inheritors of the will of heaven; the concept of “mandate of heaven” is further used to justify the transition of dynasties.[28] This heaven is omnipresent because everything on earth is encompassed in heaven; it is omniscient because heaven and human form a co-operative relationship in seeing, hearing, and adjusting to the environment.[29] However, unlike the Protestant God, Heaven assumes not the sole power of creation, and hence, not omnipotent. It is through this distinction that the Confucian heaven doesn’t stand as a force completely separate from man, and allows a different type of transcendence which enables man to become a co-creator with heaven.[30] Ying-Shi Yü, following the tradition of Karl Jaspers, notices that during a period known as “Axial breakthrough” different religious traditions “led directly to the emergence of the dichotomy between the actual world and the world beyond”, which “essentially what transcendence is all about: the actual world is transcended but not negated”.[31] Confucian transcendence, however, does not fully qualify this condition: “In the Chinese breakthrough, the two worlds, actual and transcendental, do not appear to have been sharply divided”.[32]. The result is a tradition that focuses on an “inward transcendence” through the notion of anthropocosmic unity (tianrenheyi), one which links the “two worlds, actual and transcendental… by the purified mind/heart in a way ‘neither identical nor separate’”.[33] Yü distinguishes the Confucian transcendence from the west: “The Chinese transcendental world is not systematically externalized, formalized, or objectified… After the Axial breakthrough, Chinese thinkers tended not to apply their imaginative powers to nature, shape, characteristics, and so on of the world beyond… This Chinese attitude contrasts sharply with the Western predilection to imagine, often vividly and profusely, about the world beyond with the aid of speculative reason”.[34] The path to this anthropocosmic unity, undoubtedly, is self-cultivation; the Confucian thrives for “the quest for sagehood”, as Julia Ching says, “the heart of Confucianism”.[35] Without an understanding of anthropocosmic unity, this quest indeed would seem Weberian Confucian and worldly in nature; however, with proper understanding, this quest is now a Confucian’s path to become united with Heaven, to find inner transcendence, to work his own salvation in this world, but nonetheless retain an understanding of the greater world of Heaven.

Similar to the concept of salvation, those of asceticism and life-aspiration also exist for Confucianism. Ching notices that important concepts of “self-conquest” (keji) for “restoring propriety” (fuli) are found in Confucian Analects. It is a process of continuous self-examination which Neo-Confucians used to keep “spiritual account” of themselves.[36] This asceticism, however, “remained a disciple of moderation, which did not inspire any flight into deserts or produce any monastic movement. The Confcuian teaching was to control one’s passions, not to live as if one were without them. Besides, Confucian asceticism was always practiced for the sake of a higher goal: that of rendering the individual more humane for others, in the service of a larger group, namely, the family and the society”. [37] Confucianism also contains life-aspirations beyond office-seeking of the literati class, as Weber suggests. Earlier in the paper it is already stated that the Confucian seeks sagehood and anthropocosmic unity as his life-long goal. It is perhaps more lucid to term the Confucian life-aspiration one of “holistic humanism”. Drawing from the opening lines of Great Learning, Confucian scholar Tu Weiming notes that Confucian ethic is one of humanism, in the sense that it emphasizes on the human ability of self-transformation and self-cultivation, and one of holism because it perceives one’s conduct of self, family, state, and all-under-heaven (tianxia) as inseparable parts of an expending concentric circle, with “self” serving as its inner core.[38] Indeed, “for Confucianism, life is [] a process of continuous self-cultivation and self-transformation leading to self-transcendence, the realization of one’s authentic nature in which the all-pervasive principle of Heaven are fully manifested”.[39]

Since Confucianism contains asceticism, life-aspiration, and salvation, why does it lack seeds to the capitalist mentality? Weberian observation of the socioeconomic reality results from fundamental Confucian disregard of tension for the sake of harmony, or he. The asceticism described above is to be distinguished from the Puritan asceticism, which relies on a contradictory tension between service to God and accumulation of capital. The fundamental approach to Confucian asceticism—harmony through moderation—eliminates an asceticism of tension; a Confucian would find the Puritan model unnatural. Evident in Confucianism is its life-aspiration, but this, too, lacks a notion of “tension” that the protestant model relies. Whereas the Protestant ethic creates a life-aspiration through calling of God to become “nothing more than a tool of his God, in [which] he thought his destiny”, the Confucian would see this tension between God and man, or master and his tool, as a disruption of the cosmic harmony.[40] Indeed, while the Protestant man sets to master the nature entrusted by God, the Confucian lives with the nature, a part of the heaven with whom he unites. Fundamentally, it is the Confucian salvation, a complete internal process of self-cultivation and inner transcendence, which renders capitalist mentality indifferent to him. The capitalist mentality, as Weber describes, results from the rationalization of a tension between asceticism and fulfilling God’s will for material production; the Confucian rationalization of inner transcendence, asceticism without monasticism, and life-aspiration of holistic humanism, does not need a capitalist mentality to serve its will. The quest for sagehood does not need material and economic manifestations. The office-seeking mentality and profiteering of officeholders observed by Weber are but deviants to the appropriate interpretation of the Confucian tradition—similar deviations exist in other traditions as well. These deviations should not be used to judge the normative ethic of the Confucian life-aspiration.

At this point, though, it is necessary to consider Weber’s approach to Religion of China itself; key to his theory is the concept of “rationalization”, which is the process of tension between every religion’s rational, ethical imperative with irrationalities, or traditions of the world.[41] Confucianism abandons possible tensions for harmony; to judge it in terms of a theory based on fundamental tension perhaps dwarfs its true light. For a Confucian, rationalization of his self-cultivation and quest for anthropocosmic unity signifies moral bankruptcy and justification for politico-economic gains of vanity. Such a process cannot be accepted by a tradition that never separates facts from morality, or, human from his perception of heaven. In conclusion, the Weberian analysis in Religion of China materializes a convincing argument to explain China’s lack of development in capitalist mentality from Confucian ethic. However, Weber fails to locate the real cause of such absence s a result of his inability to perceive Confucianism beyond a Eurocentric, rationalist perspective. In order to understand Confucianism and its necessary, deliberate rejection of capitalist mentality, it is imperative to understand Confucianism as an anthropocosmic tradition that discards dichotomy of tensions for harmony of coexistence.




[1] Max Weber, Religion of China, trans. Hans H. Gerth (Glencoe, IL: 1951), 226.

[2] Xinzhong Yao, An Introduction to Confucianism (Cambridge: Cambridge UP), 47.

[3] Weber, 226.

[4] Ibid., 248.

[5] Yao, 265.

[6] Weber, 210.

[7] Ibid., 210.

[8] Ibid., 228.

[9] Ibid., 235.

[10] Ibid., 235-236.

[11] Ibid., 236.

[12] Ibid., 236.

[13] Ibid., 236.

[14] Ibid., 247.

[15] Ibid., 247

[16] Ibid., 229

[17] Ibid., 247.

[18] Ibid., 247.

[19] Ibid., 248.

[20] Ibid., 160.

[21] Ibid., 145

[22] Ibid., 237

[23] Ibid., 238.

[24] Ibid., 169.

[25] Ibid., 248.

[26] Ying-shih Yü, “Between the Heavenly and the Human”, in Confucian Spirituality, Volume One, ed. Tu Weiming and Mary Evelyn Tucker (New York: Herder and Herder, 2003), 62.

[27] Weber, 155.

[28] Yao, 47.

[29] Ibid., 175

[30] Roger T. Ames, “Li and the A-theistic Religiousness of Classical Confucianism”, in Confucian Spirituality, Volume One, ed. Tu Weiming and Mary Evelyn Tucker (New York: Herder and Herder, 2003), 167-169

[31] Yü, 66.

[32] Ibid., 67.

[33] Ibid., 77.

[34] Ibid., 78.

[35] Julia Ching, “What is Confucian Spirituality?”, in Confucian Spirituality, Volume One, ed. Tu Weiming and Mary Evelyn Tucker (New York: Herder and Herder, 2003), 93.

[36] Ibid., 86.

[37] Ibid., 87.

[38] Tu Weiming, “The Ecological Turn in New Confucian Humanism: Implications for China and the World”, in Confucian Spirituality, Volume Two, ed. Tu Weiming and Mary Evelyn Tucker (New York: Herder and Herder, 2004), 483.

[39] Yao, 47.

[40] Weber, 248.

[41] Ibid., 227.

03.08.07

Cao Zhi: Sigh

Posted in 诗歌 at 3:29 am by 若水

我翻译的曹植诗歌一首:吁嗟篇
Cao Zhi: Sigh

I sigh for this tumbleweed
How solitary it stands, facing the world!
Original root, long deceased
Day and night, ceaseless unrest!
From east to west, crossing seven roads
South to north, traversing nine paths.
Suddenly I encountered a whirlwind
Lifting me to the clouds.
I exclaimed to self–exhaust these roads heavenly!
But unexpectedly to a sunken pit I descended–
Until delivered by a timely cyclone
Returned I to the middle of the fields.
But south changed to north
And east I thought, but to west it reversed.
Loafing around, I was without a host:
Once lost, now miraculously preserved.
Swinging through the Eight Marshes
Waving across the Five Mountains
With no settled home I wondered–
And my pains and hardships–them who would know?
I rather become one planted in the woods
And burn! In autumn with wild fires.
Excruciating I decay;
And my only desire: to rejoin with my roots!

03.07.07

Michaël Dudok de Wit短篇动画两段

Posted in 杂谈 at 1:21 am by 若水

在朋友的博客上看了第一段动画Father and Daughter,很感动,但同时又一种无奈感。在网上找到了第二段The Monk and the Fish。这两篇同为Michael Dudok De Wit所作。若水有感:虽然都有一个类似的主题,但表达的方式则不同。上面的那段是消极的,而这段是积极的。上面那段更有一种艺术性美感,而下面的则更活泼、轻松。

03.06.07

曹植:吁嗟篇

Posted in 诗歌 at 3:52 am by 若水

吁嗟篇

吁嗟此轉蓬,
居世何獨然。
長去本根逝,
宿夜無休閑。
東西經七陌,
南北越九阡。
卒遇回風起,
吹我入雲間。
自謂終天路,
忽然下沉淵。
驚飆接我出,
故歸彼中田。
當南而更北,
謂東而反西。
宕宕當何依,
忽亡而複存。
飄颻周八澤,
連翩歷五山。
流轉無恆處,
誰知吾苦艱。
願為中林草,
秋隨野火燔。
糜滅豈不痛,
願與根荄連


曹植在这首诗用“转蓬”的比喻象征了他苦难的生活。就如转蓬一般,诗人的生活是孤独的,一个人面对着一个敌对的政治世界。他的“根”——父亲的宠爱、公子的地位、无忧无虑的生活——早已不再,犹如漂泊在外,一日不可安宁。他曾经过着军旅生活,随父亲南征北战,没时间休息。命运就如转蓬一般,随着外在的力量而起伏波动。一会儿被吹到天上,好像马上能荣华富贵走尽天路,却又因为政治事件而坠入深渊(另外一版本做“沉泉”,代表黄泉)。好在最后性命保住了,如转蓬回归田里。可惜此时所有的一切都颠倒了,原本面南变成了北,以为要往东却反转到西。没有任何依靠,诗人死里逃生:这个“死”与“存”是象征性的也是现实的。接着诗人被动的被他的政治敌人(也就是曹丕)发配到不同封地,南北使唤,不得一日安宁,苦难不堪。最后四行则表现出了诗人的美好理想:他宁愿成为一颗普通的“中林草”,自然地在秋天随野火烧尽——当然,春风之下还会再生。相比之下,转蓬这样在异乡糜灭是多么的痛苦!转蓬和诗人一样,都极度渴望着能重新与它们的“根”相连,恢复平静的生活。

03.04.07

古希腊诗数首

Posted in 诗歌 at 5:04 pm by 若水

昨日在书店里翻到了Pure Pagan这本古希腊诗集,翻译者为Burton Raffel。诗集中有几首很短、却甚有味道的诗歌,愿在此与大家分享。

Alkaios
(公元前7世纪之诗人,生在莱斯博斯岛,并被放逐至埃及)

Frankness
Speak
As you please
And hear
What can never
Please

率直

使你欢悦的

使你永不会
欢悦的

Friendship
Friends? My friends are nothing,
And I weep for them,
And for me.

友谊
朋友?他们什么都不是,
我为他们哭泣,
也为自己。

Philosophy
Nothing
Will
Come
Of
Anything.

哲理
没有
不会


任何。

Sorrow

Sorrow:
You’ve made me completely forget sorrow.

悲哀
悲哀:
你让我完全忘却了悲哀。

Truth
(这首诗相信了解希腊文化的朋友们会理解的)
Boy:
Boy:
Wine

And

Truth.

真理
男童:
男童:
美酒

真理。

Plato

An Epitaph (墓志铭都是各有意义)
I am a drowned man’s tomb. There is a farmer’s.
Death waits for us all, whether at sea or on land.

墓志铭
我乃溺水人之墓。它是种田人的。
死亡等待我们所有人,海洋里或陆地上。

Theodoridas

An Epitaph
There is a drowned man’s tomb. Sail on, stranger,
For when we went down the other ships sailed on.

墓志铭
这里是溺水人之墓。继续航行吧,陌生人,
我们海难时其余的船只亦会继续航行。

Hegemon

Thermopylae
Passing this tomb, some somber stranger
Might say: “Here the courage of a thousand Spartans
Stopped a million Persians, and died facing
The enemy. This is what Sparta means.”

塞莫皮莱
路过此墓,一些忧郁的陌生人
可能会说:“在这里斯巴达千人勇士
停下了一百万波斯人,面对敌人
死亡。这就是斯巴达的意义。”

03.03.07

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr过世

Posted in 时事 at 3:06 pm by 若水

2月28日,著名知识分子、自由主义者、历史学家以及我校校友Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. 去世了。他出生于1917年,并于1938年从我校历史文学专业毕业,论文为对Orestes A. Brownson之研究。Schlesinger荣获普利策奖两次,其一为Age of Jackson,主要讲述了杰克逊时代美国如何是由Jeffersonian democracy逐渐演变成Jacksonian democracy的。并通过Democractic Republican党与Federalist党,Democractic党与Whig党之间的“斗争”来表明美国现代民主自由的根源;虽然其书章节繁多而缺少一主体的记叙,却通过此主线表达了作者之意愿。其二为A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in The White House,讲诉他作为肯尼迪白宫顾问的事情,笔者尚未读过,无资格评价。Schlesinger一生都为美国自由主义效力,并不在其作品中试图掩盖他自己的看法,值得敬佩。详细可见这里wikipedia.

03.01.07

Summers论中国经济

Posted in 时事 at 8:05 pm by 若水

周一上海股市大跌前,哈佛前校长、经济学家Larry Summers发表了这篇有关中国经济的文章,题曰”A Japanese Lesson for China”。作者提到,今日的中国之经济发展是不可否定的。它含有以下特点:高saving/investment rate、强大的中央银行储备和盈余所带来的汇率调控、以及以银行为主、高度控制、支持国内企业的金融系统、以及与政府紧密联系的工业。他说,现在的中国经济与1980年代末1990年代初的日本经济非常相近:

All of this describes what is happening in China, and with our relationship with Beijing, today. It also describes the Japanese economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, before its lost decade of deflation and considerable deterioration in global prestige. Although there are obvious differences, notably China’s much lower level of development, the similarities are striking enough to invite an effort to draw some lessons from the Japanese experience.

但是日本1990年代所面对的则是一个备受世界耻笑的经济萧条:

The definitive history of Japan’s dismal decade has yet to be written. But most observers would agree that key elements included the bursting of stock market and land bubbles, the resulting problems in the financial system, the collapse of aggregate demand as banks stopped extending credit and the difficulty of moving from export-led growth to domestic-led growth once consumer and business confidence was lost.

我们通过后见之明则可发现当时日本的问题很大程度上是政府政策错误所造成的:

they followed easy monetary and financial policies that gave rise to huge asset price bubbles and expansions in credit, which set the stage for the downturn. At the same time, they failed to encourage a shift to domestic demand-led growth at a moment when consumers were enjoying record increases in wealth. And they allowed problems in the banking system to fester

也就是说,如果中国不接受日本所犯下错误的教训,则有可能在不久的将来上演日本90年代的好戏。Summers认为,明智的政策应该包括扩宽和放松汇率、允许人民币升值,和鼓励消费来推动国内需求所带来的长远经济发展。而这些政策在经济情况大好时推广则比在萧条后再来补救要容易得多。

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